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15 Sep 2025

Trump defies market expectations, predicts a large interest rate cut this week.

US President Donald Trump predicted the Federal Reserve would make a "significant" interest rate cut this week ahead of a pivotal meeting at which policymakers are expected to ease monetary policy for the first time in nine months.

"I think you're going to get a significant cut," Trump told reporters on Sunday on his way back to Washington. "It's the perfect timing for a cut."

The Fed is widely expected to cut interest rates on September 17, amid a sluggish labor market, persistent inflation, and unprecedented pressure from Trump to lower borrowing costs. The median estimate from a Bloomberg survey of economists is for a 25 basis point cut.

Trump has been pressuring Fed Chairman Jerome Powell for months to cut rates and has even repeatedly urged him to resign.

Recent weak economic reports have raised concerns that the labor market could slide into a deeper slowdown that threatens consumer spending and growth. Inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target and could rise further if tariffs push up costs, making some officials more cautious about moving too quickly. Powell's term ends in May 2026, and Trump has already begun considering his successor, publicly naming three potential candidates: White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett, current Federal Reserve Board member Christopher Waller, and former Federal Reserve Board member Kevin Warsh.

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