Global oil supply is expected to grow faster than previously estimated this year, and the surplus is expected to expand further in 2026 thanks to increased OPEC+ production and "weak" demand, according to the International Energy Agency's monthly report.
The IEA stated in its October Oil Market Report that global oil supply is on track to rise by 3 million barrels per day (bpd) to 106.1 million bpd in 2025. The agency had previously forecast an increase of 2.7 million bpd. Next year, supply is expected to grow by an additional 2.4 million bpd, the agency added.
Global oil supply in September was 5.6 million bpd higher than the previous year, largely due to production by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies. The producer group, known as OPEC+, reversed some production cuts more quickly than previously planned, raising concerns about a global supply glut that has generally weighed on oil prices this year.
Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency (IEA) expects oil demand to grow by 710,000 barrels per day (bpd) this year, compared to a previous estimate of 740,000 bpd.
“Oil use will remain subdued through the remainder of 2025 and into 2026, resulting in projected annual gains of around 700,000 bpd in both years,” the IEA wrote, adding that this is “well below the historical trend.”
A “harsher” economic climate and the ongoing transition to renewable energy sources were cited as reasons for “a sharp slowdown in oil consumption growth.”
The forecast comes after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) confirmed its forecast for oil demand growth of 1.3 million bpd this year and described the global economy as generally strong. OPEC’s demand estimate is nearly double that provided by the IEA.
