China is expected to accelerate its crude oil stockpiling this year and through 2026 as Beijing takes advantage of lower prices and prioritizes energy security, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
The banking group expects the country to add about 500,000 barrels per day to its reserves over the next five quarters, a pace far exceeding recent estimates of Chinese purchases.
Dan Struyven, head of oil research at Goldman Sachs, said in an interview this week that this build reflects both opportunistic buying and a strategic drive to boost inventories.
At the Asia-Pacific Petroleum Conference in Singapore, traders noted that Chinese demand has been a key support for prices, offsetting concerns about an impending supply glut. Frederic Lasserre, head of research at Gunvor, put the pace of recent additions at nearly 200,000 barrels per day.
China's crude oil reserves remain one of the country's most closely guarded secrets, with little transparency about the exact volumes or scope of the stockpiling. Much of the oil is also believed to come from sanctioned producers such as Russia, Iran, and Venezuela, further clouding flows.
Despite the buying campaign, Goldman continues to forecast Brent crude to fall to the mid-$50s per barrel next year, pointing to an oversupplied market.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast on Thursday that a record surplus in 2026 will be larger than previously anticipated as OPEC+ and others expand production.
Output is expected to expand by 2.7 million barrels per day in 2025, up from a previous estimate of 2.5 million, followed by an additional 2.1 million barrels per day in 2026.
This increase comes as OPEC and its allies accelerate the unwinding of production cuts, adding more barrels to the market and increasing concerns about a surplus already weighing on prices this year
